SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110023
ARZ000-OKZ000-110200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1938
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0723 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEASTERN OK INTO NORTHWESTERN AR
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 110023Z - 110200Z
AN AREA OF STRONG TO LOW END SEVERE STORMS SOUTHWEST OF TULSA WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHWEST AR ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AND MAY INTENSIFY THIS EVENING. SHOULD THESE STORMS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED...AN MCS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS EASTERN OK
AND WESTERN AR TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED IN OK AHEAD OF A SWWD ADVANCING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY AND AIDED BY DEEPER FORCING BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING
THROUGH MIDLEVEL FLOW NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER. FURTHER EAST...STORMS
HAVE ALSO BEGUN TO DEVELOP INTO FAR NWRN AR...ALSO ALONG AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. IN ADDITION TO THESE
BOUNDARIES...STORMS WERE TAPPING INTO RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 80S...SBCAPE VALUES WERE APPROACHING 2000 J/KG. THESE STORMS
WILL MAINLY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING
WINDS...ESPECIALLY IF A SUFFICIENT COLD POOL CAN BE ESTABLISHED
SHOULD THEY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. THIS IS DUE IN PART TO
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES NEAR 40-45 KT. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AROUND 7.5 C/KM MAY LEAD TO SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL BUT WIND IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREAT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
..LEITMAN.. 08/11/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...OUN...
LAT...LON 36249431 36189482 36099562 36189638 36239700 35989715
35489700 34949641 34699567 34639451 34669353 34829277
35119245 35469243 35949258 36049273 36249323 36249431
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