SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112338
IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-120115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1948
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0638 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...SD...NE...IA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 112338Z - 120115Z
LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACROSS SCNTRL SD ATTM IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST INTO SERN SD...NERN NEB..AND PARTS OF WRN
IA LATER TONIGHT. LATEST SEWD TRACK AT 35-40KT WOULD HAVE THE SYSTEM
MOVING OUT OF THE CURRENT WATCHES IN A LITTLE OVER ONE HOUR.
THUS...IT APPEARS THAT A NEW SEVERE TSTM WATCH WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING.
INTENSE TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CNTRL SD HAS GROWN UPSCALE INTO A
MATURE QLCS NOW TRACKING ESEWD AT UP TO 40KT. THE OVERALL PATTERN
ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS FEATURES A BROAD REGION OF MODEST LOW
THROUGH MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION THAT SHOULD SUSTAIN DEEP CONVECTION
ON THE EDGE OF THE CAP THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WNWLY FLOW OF
35-40KT ATOP WEAKER SELY FLOW WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO MCS
LONGEVITY IN A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
PLUME OF MOISTURE RICH AIR WHERE GPS PW VALUES ARE IN THE RANGE OF 1
TO 1.25 INCHES. A LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION IS INDICATED IN THE
ACCOMPANYING GRAPHIC AND HAS THE SYSTEM MOVING STEADILY SEWD ACROSS
SERN SD AND INTO ERN NEB AND WRN IA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
GIVEN DOWNSTREAM INSTABILITY AND CONTINUED LARGER SCALE SUPPORT FOR
ASCENT ACROSS THE AREA EXPECT THE THREAT FOR SOME HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 50-60KT TO MOVE ACROSS SOME OF THIS AREA LATER
THIS EVENING.
..CARBIN.. 08/11/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...
LAT...LON 42129884 43479748 43489641 43159522 42129576 41149649
41509826 42129884
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