SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132230
OHZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-140000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1971
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0530 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN OH...CNTRL AND ERN KY...FAR N-CNTRL TN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 132230Z - 140000Z
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND TRACK GENERALLY EWD
THROUGH THE EVENING. AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST CELLS. A WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME AS SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ISOLATED.
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WAS MAINLY BEING DRIVEN BY DEEP LAYER
FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING/AMPLIFYING TROUGH. AIR MASS
ACROSS THE REGION WAS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 1000-2000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPOINTS FROM THE MID 60 TO LOW
70S. THIS WILL SUPPORT SOMEWHAT VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS BUT GIVEN LACK OF
ANY SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION.
HOWEVER...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 25-35 KT MAY ALLOW A
FEW STORMS TO PERSIST LONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
OR DOWNBURST WINDS. ANY SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND A
WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
..LEITMAN.. 08/13/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...
LAT...LON 39278399 39088483 38338595 37838641 37368671 36808691
36428689 36168622 36148542 36608408 37078334 37618282
38228270 38738286 39088332 39278399
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