SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182318
MOZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-182345-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2011
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0618 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL/ERN NEB...FAR WRN IA...AND FAR
NWRN MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 182318Z - 182345Z
THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL TORNADOES SHOULD INCREASE THIS EVENING ACROSS
FAR WRN IA...ERN NEB INTO NRN NEB. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
ISSUED TO REPLACE PART OF WW 785...AND INCLUDE AREAS NWWD INTO NRN
NEB.
EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM
SWRN SD ESEWD THROUGH NRN NEB /JUST S OF ANW/ TO SERN HOLT
COUNTY...WITH THIS BOUNDARY THEN EXTENDING SEWD INTO SERN NEB AND
FAR ERN KS. HIGH THETAE AIR MASS EXISTS INVOF OF THIS WARM FRONT
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S EXTENDING FROM THE ERN HALF
OF NEB INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEB. AREA WIND PROFILER DATA SHOWED A
STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF NEB WITH SUBSEQUENT
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL SHEAR /EFFECTIVE SRH 100-300 M2 PER S2/ WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES. THIS THREAT
EXTENDS NWWD INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEB AS A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM
TRACKS SEWD FROM BENNETT COUNTY SD /SRN EXTENT OF WW 786/ INTO NRN
NEB.
..PETERS.. 08/18/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...UNR...
LAT...LON 42250106 42650153 43020188 43049945 42969792 42829640
42059555 41109505 40189502 40039532 40079636 40289749
40539836 42250106
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