SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230545
IAZ000-MNZ000-230745-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2040
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS IA AND SRN MN.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 230545Z - 230745Z
EXPANDING TSTM CLUSTER OVER PORTIONS NWRN IA...SWRN MN AND EXTREME
ERN SD MAY CONTINUE TO GROW UPSCALE WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND
AND OCNL LARGE HAIL EXTENDING SEWD FROM THERE. COMPLEX SHOULD TURN
SEWD ACROSS IA ALONG THERMAL/BUOYANCY GRADIENT NEAR WARM FRONT.
ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED AWAY FROM APPRECIABLE SFC FOCI...E OF COLD
FRONT AND W OF WARM FRONT...IN ZONE OF STG LOW-LEVEL WAA AND SUBTLE
LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE. AIR MASS IS CHARACTERIZED BY FAVORABLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...I.E. PW AROUND 1.5-1.75 INCHES BASED ON REGIONAL
GPS READINGS AND FCST SOUNDINGS...AND ERN RIM OF 70S F SFC DEW
POINTS. MIDLEVEL DCVA/ASCENT PRECEDING STG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
DAKOTAS WILL SHIFT ESEWD ACROSS REGION...HELPING TO MAINTAIN STEEP
LAPSE RATES. IN CONJUNCTION WITH LARGE LOW-LEVEL THETAE...MLCAPE
NEAR 2000 J/KG IS FCST IN PROSPECTIVE SEWD TRACK OF COMPLEX. TSTM
ACCESS TO SFC-BASED PARCELS MAY DEPEND ON DEPTH/STRENGTH FORCED
ASCENT ALONG LEADING EDGE OF COLD POOL...GIVEN DIABATIC SFC COOLING
AND RESULTING GRADUAL INCREASE OF MLCINH. SUCH EXPANSIVE COLD POOL
MAY BE DEVELOPING GIVEN SVR GUST OF 57 KT ALREADY MEASURED AT
LYV...CLUSTERING NATURE OF TSTMS...AND GUST-FRONT SURGE ALREADY
EVIDENT ON SW SIDE OF COMPLEX. 40-50 KT NWLY EFFECTIVE-SHEAR
VECTORS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THIS REGION IN SUPPORT OF TSTM
ORGANIZATION.
..EDWARDS.. 08/23/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...
LAT...LON 40959499 41619523 42349562 43519639 43889584 44249556
43869438 43419325 42639165 42219090 41209205 40779328
40689448 40959499
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