SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250025
MIZ000-250200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2052
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0725 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MI
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 802...
VALID 250025Z - 250200Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 802 CONTINUES.
A SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS WW 802 FOR MOST OF THE
EVENING. THE STRONGER ROTATING CELLS MAY PRODUCE TORNADOES...LARGE
HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EXPAND SEWD
ACROSS LAKE ERIE INTO NRN OH LATER THIS EVENING WHERE ADDITIONAL WW
ISSUANCE APPEARS LIKELY.
A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING FROM SWRN
ONTARIO WSWWD INTO THE DETROIT AREA AND WWD TO NEAR SOUTH BEND. THIS
ACTIVITY IS ONGOING ALONG A SFC TROUGH AND AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WRN
LOWER MI. THE ENVIRONMENT JUST AHEAD OF THE LINE IS CHARACTERIZED BY
STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500 TO 3500 J/KG/...MODERATE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR / 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KT/...AND STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /850-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 7.0 TO 7.5 C/KM.
THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH THE
STRONGER CELLS LIKELY PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION...THE LOW
AND MID-LEVEL JETS ARE JUXTAPOSED MAXIMIZING SHEAR ACROSS SERN LOWER
MI SUGGESTING A TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE
SHOULD ALSO OCCUR WITH THIS THREAT INCREASING LATER THIS EVENING AS
A NEARLY CONTINUOUS LINE CONGEALS ACROSS THE SERN PART OF WW 802
MOVING SEWD ACROSS LAKE ERIE INTO NRN OH.
..BROYLES.. 08/25/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...
LAT...LON 45198344 45208390 44848388 44838436 44488436 44528484
44178482 44158509 43808508 43808551 43258554 43298578
43198578 43188587 43088589 43128626 42698620 42258634
42228619 42108621 42078580 42038435 41738435 41738342
41948312 42318315 42378279 42568265 42668255 43128233
43568214 44178225 44218338 44308324 44868321 44948327
44988312 45108313 45248325 45438342 45358348 45198344
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