WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 719

WWUS20 KWNS 022223
SEL9
SPC WW 022223
ILZ000-INZ000-MIZ000-OHZ000-WIZ000-LEZ000-LMZ000-030600-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 719
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
525 PM CDT TUE AUG 2 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHEAST ILLINOIS
NORTHERN INDIANA
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
EXTREME NORTHWEST OHIO
EXTREME SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN
LAKE ERIE
LAKE MICHIGAN

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 525
PM UNTIL 100 AM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTHWEST
OF MARSEILLES ILLINOIS TO 15 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FLINT MICHIGAN.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INTENSIFYING ACROSS SE WI AND
ADJACENT LAKE MI ALONG A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE/SURFACE
TROUGH...AHEAD OF AN MCV MOVING SEWD OVER WI. STRONG INSTABILITY IS
PRESENT IN ADVANCE OF THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION...AND DEEP-LAYER
VERTICAL SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT INITIALLY FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH UPSCALE
GROWTH INTO AN MCS EXPECTED THIS EVENING. WHILE AN ISOLATED TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE INITIALLY DISCRETE STORMS INVOF SE
WI/NE IL...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME THE MAIN THREAT THIS EVENING
AS THE CONVECTION GROWS UPSCALE AND SURGES EWD/SEWD.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 650. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 31035.

...THOMPSON

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