WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 732

WWUS20 KWNS 062236
SEL2
SPC WW 062236
IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-070600-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 732
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
535 PM CDT SAT AUG 6 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN IOWA
EXTREME NORTHWEST MISSOURI
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 535 PM
UNTIL 100 AM CDT.

HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF GRAND ISLAND NEBRASKA TO 50 MILES NORTH OF LAMONI
IOWA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...STORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEB
ALONG/AHEAD OF A WEAK CONFLUENCE ZONE...WITH ADDITIONAL CELLS
FORMING OVER NORTHEAST NEB ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF STABLE LAYER.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SUBTLE PERTURBATION IN THE FLOW MOVING
EWD ACROSS CENTRAL NEB...WITH STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE
OF 2500-3000 J/KG COINCIDENT WITH 30-40 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP. ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A FORWARD-PROPAGATING QLCS LATER
THIS EVENING.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27025.

...WEISS

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