SWODY1
SPC AC 090433
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1133 PM CDT THU SEP 08 2011
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL RETROGRADE WWD FROM THE OH VALLEY TO THE
MID MS VALLEY...WHILE AN OCCLUDED SFC LOW MEANDERS OVER PARTS OF
IND/IL. MEANWHILE...COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE /PW
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES/ WILL BE DRAWN ENEWD ACROSS THE SERN
HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN FL. FARTHER TO
THE WEST...THE BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SWRN STATES AND CNTRL
GREAT BASIN WILL BE REINFORCED BY AN IMPULSE TRANSLATING ESEWD
/PRESENTLY LOCATED OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST/.
...MIDDLE ATLANTIC TO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY INTO THE MID MS
VALLEY AND ERN KS...
AN ARCING AXIS OF MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /SFC DEWPOINTS FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S/ IS FORECAST TO BE PRESENT NEAR AND NORTH OF
THE OCCLUDED FRONT AND WEST OF THE SFC LOW. RELATIVELY COOL
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES OVERLAYING THIS MOISTURE ARE FORECAST TO
SUPPORT MARGINAL AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY DURING PEAK HEATING. THIS
INSTABILITY...COMBINED WITH CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT AND SFC
LOW...IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...AS THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS
DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE MORE ROBUST WARM SECTOR /LOCATED MOSTLY
OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD/...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE
DISORGANIZED WITH A NEGLIGIBLE SVR THREAT. HOWEVER...SMALL HAIL
CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER PARTS OF ERN KS AND WRN MO...WHERE THE
POCKET OF COLDEST 500-MB TEMPERATURES /AROUND -15C/ IS FORECAST TO
BE PRESENT AROUND PEAK HEATING.
...CNTRL/SRN FL...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON WITH AMPLE DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTABILITY.
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CNTRL FL AND SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARIES COULD SERVE TO FOCUS CONVECTION. GUSTY WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS OWING TO WATER-LOADING
PROCESSES...THOUGH THE LACK OF STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED
TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
...WRN STATES...
WEAK ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED BROAD MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING ARE FORECAST TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ROCKIES...GREAT BASIN...SWRN
STATES...AND SIERRA MOUNTAINS. STEEP LOW-TO-MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
COULD SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.
..COHEN/RACY.. 09/09/2011
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