SWODY1
SPC AC 091242
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0742 AM CDT FRI SEP 09 2011
VALID 091300Z - 101200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
FEW CHANGES THIS PERIOD IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN...WITH ONLY
SLIGHT RETROGRESSION EXPECTED WITH BOTH THE OH/MID MS VALLEY UPPER
LOW AND A WEAKER DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN. RICHER
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH
DAYTIME HEATING IN CLOUD BREAKS TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM CENTRAL/WRN PA TO THE NRN CHESAPEAKE AREA. FARTHER W INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY AND ERN PLAINS STATES...MORE LIMITED
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
MIDLEVEL COLD CORE. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED E OF THE ROCKIES
GIVEN THE WEAK INSTABILITY/LAPSE RATES AND GENERALLY WEAK VERTICAL
SHEAR. MEANWHILE...THE RICHER MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE CONFINED TO
ALONG AND S OF A STALLED FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL FL.
...AZ AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
A BELT OF WLY MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER AZ TO THE S OF THE
GREAT BASIN TROUGH...AS WILL A PLUME OF LOW-MIDLEVEL MOISTURE.
MODIFYING THE 12Z FGZ AND PHOENIX SOUNDINGS FOR DAYTIME HEATING
YIELDS MLCAPE OF 750-1500 J/KG AND LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...IN
AN ENVIRONMENT OF SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR SOME ORGANIZED
MULTICELL/MARGINAL SUPERCELL STORMS. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR ON THE FRINGES OF THE MORNING
CLOUDS/CONVECTION...AND A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR STRONG GUSTS.
..THOMPSON/HURLBUT.. 09/09/2011
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