SWODY1
SPC AC 220450
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2011
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE THAT SHORT WAVE IMPULSES DIGGING AROUND THE WESTERN
AND SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID/UPPER CLOSED LOW...NOW OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A SLOW SOUTHWARD
MIGRATION OF THE CIRCULATION NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
WITHIN BROADER SCALE TROUGHING WHICH WILL LIKELY GRADUALLY ENCOMPASS
MUCH OF THE NATION EAST OF THE ROCKIES. ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
DEVELOPMENTS...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE SOUTHWARD INTO
THE LOWER RIO GRANDE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS...AND A BIT MORE
SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION. MOIST CONDITIONS AND CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD REMAIN CONDUCIVE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LITTLE SUBSTANTIVE CHANGE TO THE WARM
SECTOR THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT WHICH HAS YIELDED LOW
TO NEGLIGIBLE SEVERE POTENTIAL THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
..KERR/ROGERS.. 09/22/2011
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