SWODY1
SPC AC 301158
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0658 AM CDT FRI SEP 30 2011
VALID 301300Z - 011200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...MID ATLANTIC REGION AND CAROLINAS...
A RATHER DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN STATES
TODAY...WITH THE CORE OF A DEEPENING UPPER LOW TRACKING FROM LOWER
MI INTO VA BY SAT MORNING. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL PA INTO WESTERN VA...AND
WILL TRACK EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST LATER TODAY. RATHER STRONG
HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER
50S WILL RESULT IN MODERATE CAPE VALUES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATER TODAY FROM VA INTO NC BEFORE
MOVING OFFSHORE. WHILE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE
QUITE LIMITED...RELATIVELY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT A RISK OF GUSTY WINDS IN THE
STRONGER CELLS. A COMBINATION OF WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS AND POOR MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE LIKELY TO PRECLUDE A MORE ORGANIZED RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS.
...SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND...
MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE
COLD FRONT AS IT APPROACHES THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATER THIS
EVENING. ENHANCED CONVERGENCE NEAR THE LOW MAY HELP TO INITIATE AND
MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER NORTH INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS IN
THIS REGION AS WELL...BUT LACK OF MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE/
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SHOULD PRECLUDE A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT.
..HART/DEAN.. 09/30/2011
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment