SWODY1
SPC AC 091606
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1106 AM CDT FRI SEP 09 2011
VALID 091630Z - 101200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...EAST...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE IN THIS OUTLOOK UPDATE.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE TODAY FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND PA/NY IN VICINITY OF THE
WEAK UPPER LOW ACROSS REGION. WEAK SHEAR PROFILES AND POOR LAPSE
RATES IN THIS REGION SHOULD PRECLUDE AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT.
...WEST...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY OVER MUCH
OF THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES. A BAND OF STRONGER
WESTERLY FLOW OVER AZ WILL PROVIDE SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE VERTICAL
SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. MOST 12Z OPERATIONAL AND
MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE LOWER DESERTS BY LATE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT
LIMITED...WHICH MAY LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
STORMS. HOWEVER...STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY RESULT IN
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE STRONGEST CELLS.
..HART/LEITMAN.. 09/09/2011
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