SWODY2
SPC AC 040553
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1253 AM CDT SUN SEP 04 2011
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FAR WRN FL
PANHANDLE....SCNTRL AL AND WRN GA...
TROPICAL STORM LEE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS LA TONIGHT AND BECOME
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MONDAY IN SRN MS. HEAVY RAINBANDS SHOULD
EXTEND NEWD AND EWD FROM THE CENTER ACROSS THE ERN GULF COAST STATES
AS IS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS
SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE...SRN AL...SCNTRL GA AND
SC WHERE MODEL FORECASTS DEVELOP MODERATE INSTABILITY DURING THE
DAY. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE ERN GULF COAST STATES MONDAY
SHOW 0-1 KM SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KT WITH SUBSTANTIAL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS RESULTING IN AMPLY CURVED HODOGRAPHS. THIS
COULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ROTATING STORMS AND TORNADOES AS CELLS
INITIATE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR DUE TO SFC HEATING. THE TORNADO
THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST WITH DISCRETE STORMS THAT INITIATE ALONG
THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT FROM SRN AL NEWD INTO WRN GA WHERE A FEW
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT RISK
AREA FROM SW AL NEWD INTO WRN GA WHERE THE TORNADO THREAT APPEARS
GREATEST ACCORDING THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
OF 2.0 TO 2.5 INCHES AND 50 KT OF FLOW JUST OFF THE SFC MAY ALSO
PROMOTE A THREAT FOR WET DOWNBURSTS ESPECIALLY IF A LINE-SEGMENT CAN
BECOME SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED MONDAY AFTERNOON.
..BROYLES.. 09/04/2011
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