SWODY2
SPC AC 090516
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1216 AM CDT FRI SEP 09 2011
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...RATHER STAGNANT AND BLOCKY PATTERN IS FCST
THROUGH PERIOD. BROAD/PERSISTENT CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER
ERRATICALLY OVER LOWER OH AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY REGION THROUGH
DAY-2...SLOWLY DEVOLVING TOWARD POSITIVELY-TILTED/OPEN-WAVE TROUGH
LATE DAY-2 OR EARLY DAY-3. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE TROUGHING NOW
EVIDENT OVER PORTIONS WRN/SRN NV SHOULD EVOLVE INTO CLOSED 500-MB
LOW AND RETROGRADE ACROSS CENTRAL CA DAY-1...BECOMING CUT OFF AND
QUASISTATIONARY INVOF COASTAL MRY-SBA CORRIDOR THIS PERIOD.
DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...AREAS OF STG SFC HEATING AND AT LEAST MRGL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT BROAD SWATH OF GEN THUNDER POTENTIAL
SRN ROCKIES TO NRN CA...AND MUCH OF AZ. ALTHOUGH VEERING WITH
HEIGHT AND STG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ARE POSSIBLE OVER AZ...E OF CUT-OFF
LOW...FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WEAK LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL WINDS AND LACK OF
BULK SHEAR. ANY SVR THREAT SHOULD BE TOO LOCALIZED/ISOLATED TO DRAW
AOA 5% GRID PROBABILITIES ATTM.
AT SFC...STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE WILL LINGER ACROSS FL PENINSULA AND
CENTRAL GULF. WEAKLY CAPPED DIURNAL WARM SECTOR ALONG AND S OF
FRONT...ALONG WITH SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES...WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL
FOR GEN TSTMS OF MULTICELL/PULSE NATURE. MEANWHILE...BROAD/WEAK SFC
REFLECTION OF CYCLONE ALOFT WILL PERSIST. CORRIDOR OF RESIDUAL
MOISTURE AND RELATED AXIS OF SFC THETAE...JUXTAPOSED WITH POCKETS OF
DIABATIC/DIURNAL HEATING...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS
OVER PORTIONS MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND WWD BENEATH STACKED CYCLONE.
HOWEVER...WEAKNESS OF BOTH MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL
FLOW...AND LACK OF APPRECIABLE SHEAR RELATED TO LATTER...SHOULD
MINIMIZE ORGANIZED SVR POTENTIAL.
..EDWARDS.. 09/09/2011
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