SWODY2
SPC AC 120600
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT MON SEP 12 2011
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEAST STATES...
...NORTHEAST STATES/LOWER GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY...
BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN/AMPLIFY OVER THE EASTERN
TWO-THIRDS OF CANADA AND THE ADJACENT UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES
REGION ON TUESDAY. A LEAD PORTION OF THIS TROUGH WILL SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF QUEBEC...WHILE THE NEXT
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SPEED MAX DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD
NORTHWEST ONTARIO/LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...A
COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY/NORTHEAST STATES AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
SUCH A LARGE SCALE SCENARIO MAY YIELD RELATIVELY NEBULOUS/WEAK LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST STATES/OH VALLEY. HOWEVER...WITH SUFFICIENT NEAR-FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE/HEATING...SCATTERED TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND
DIURNALLY INCREASE ALONG THE EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT /OR
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/ THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL BE
TEMPERED ON THE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH...BUT
PRE-FRONTAL HEATING/STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP TROPOSPHERIC FLOW MAY BE CONDUCIVE FOR AT
LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY IN THE
FORM OF MULTICELLS/LINE SEGMENTS BUT PERHAPS A FEW SUPERCELLS AS
WELL. DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERNS...ALTHOUGH A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR AREAS SUCH AS
UPSTATE NY.
...AZ/SOUTHWEST STATES...
UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER CA SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE EASTWARD-
PROGRESSIVE BY TUESDAY...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS REMAINING
COMMON FROM THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY VICINITY TO THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA. AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...A MOIST ENVIRONMENT IN CONJUNCTION
WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND STRONG MID/HIGH LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW MAY YIELD SOME STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS CAPABLE OF HAIL/WIND ACROSS
PORTIONS OF AZ.
..GUYER.. 09/12/2011
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