SWODY2
SPC AC 140555
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT WED SEP 14 2011
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE EASTERN CANADA/GREAT LAKES UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ON
THURSDAY...WHILE AN ASSOCIATED/PRIMARY COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
STEADILY PROGRESS EASTWARD OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND OTHERWISE
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS. IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FRONT...EXTENSIVE HIGH PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED
COOL/STABLE AIRMASS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL EAST OF THE ROCKIES. IN
THE WEST...THE REMNANT SOUTHWEST STATES UPPER LOW WILL MINOR OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
...NM/FAR SOUTHWEST TX...
THE REMNANTS OF THE SOUTHWEST STATES UPPER LOW /ALBEIT WEAKENING/
AND OTHER EMBEDDED SMALL-SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL SPREAD GENERALLY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/SOUTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME...A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD PROGRESSING FRONT WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING/WESTWARD-ADVANCING MOISTURE ACROSS INTERIOR NM/FAR
SOUTHWEST TX. GIVEN INCREASING MOISTURE CONTENT AND RELATIVELY
STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR /40+ KT/ ATTRIBUTABLE TO VEERING WIND
PROFILES/MODERATELY STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLIES ALOFT...SOME OF THE
MORE SUSTAINED STORMS MAY YIELD HAIL/GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
...GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST STATES...
A FEW STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS...MAINLY CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS...MAY BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITHIN A WARM/MOIST AND POTENTIALLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG/SOUTH OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING
COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...THE EXPECTED MARGINAL/LOCALIZED NATURE OF ANY
SEVERE RISK PRECLUDES SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
...NORTHEAST SEABOARD...
SHOWERS/SOME TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION AS A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT OVERTAKES AN INITIAL NORTHEAST STATES FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...PRIOR TO SPREADING OFFSHORE BY EVENING. HOWEVER...MODEST
DESTABILIZATION/POOR LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A SEVERE
THREAT.
..GUYER.. 09/14/2011
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment