SWODY2
SPC AC 210554
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 AM CDT WED SEP 21 2011
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LOW/TROUGH INITIALLY CENTERED INVOF THE UPPER MS
VALLEY WILL MAKE SLOW EWD/SEWD PROGRESS DAY 2...AND WILL REMAIN THE
PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST ALOFT THIS PERIOD.
AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NEWD ACROSS ONTARIO
TOWARD WRN QUEBEC WITH TIME...WHILE THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MAKES
LITTLE EWD PROGRESS ACROSS THE OH/TN/LOWER MS VALLEY REGION BUT A
BIT FASTER SWD PROGRESS ACROSS TX. MEANWHILE...SECONDARY
CYCLOGENESIS IS PROGGED INVOF FL OR JUST OFF THE FL ATLANTIC COAST.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ALONG THE FRONT FROM
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD INTO TX. LITTLE INSTABILITY BUT
AMPLE SHEAR IS PROGGED ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THIS REGION...WITH
SLIGHTLY GREATER CAPE BUT WEAKER SHEAR WITH SWWD EXTENT ALONG THE
FRONT. OVERALL...THIS SUGGESTS THAT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD
REMAIN LOW-END AND QUITE ISOLATED...AND THEREFORE WILL NOT INTRODUCE
SEVERE PROBABILITY LINES TO THE FORECAST ATTM.
OTHER SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS ARE FORECAST OVER THE E
COAST/SOUTHEAST AND OFFSHORE...BENEATH BROAD UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW ON
THE ERN FRINGE OF THE MAIN TROUGH. HERE TOO...CAPE/SHEAR
COMBINATION APPEARS INSUFFICIENT FOR ANY MORE THAN A BRIEF/LOW-END
SEVERE THREAT WITH A STRONGER STORM OR TWO.
..GOSS.. 09/21/2011
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment