SWODY2
SPC AC 250526
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2011
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY...
NAM/GFS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT REGARDING A SLIGHT EWD DISPLACEMENT
OF UPPER LOW ACROSS NRN IL TOWARD THE CHI AREA. BENEATH THIS SLOW
MOVING CYCLONE IT APPEARS THE PRIMARY SFC BOUNDARY WILL ADVANCE TO A
POSITION FROM THE MI/IND BORDER...ARCING SEWD ALONG THE IND/OH
BORDER BY 26/18Z. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE EXHIBITS A CONSIDERABLE
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS/CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY EARLY IN
THE PERIOD. IF BREAKS CAN DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION OCCURS...ROBUST UPDRAFTS
MAY ULTIMATELY DEVELOP WITHIN A SHEARED ENVIRONMENT THAT WOULD
OTHERWISE FAVOR STORM ORGANIZATION. FOR THIS REASON HAVE OPTED TO
INTRODUCE LOW PROBS TO ACCOUNT FOR A RISK OF WIND AND PERHAPS SOME
HAIL.
...ARKLATEX...
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD
ACROSS THE ARKLATEX ALONG TRAILING BOUNDARY THAT WILL STALL FROM NRN
MS...SWWD INTO NERN TX. DURING THE EVENING HOURS A LLJ SHOULD
INCREASE ACROSS NERN TX THEN VEER TOWARD SRN AR AFTER MIDNIGHT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM SUGGEST PARCELS LIFTED ABOVE 850MB
WILL YIELD 1500-2000 J/KG MUCAPE AS MOISTURE RETURNS ATOP THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
COOL SIDE OF THE WIND SHIFT THEN SPREAD/DEVELOP EWD AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
..DARROW.. 09/25/2011
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