DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 241729
SWODY2
SPC AC 241727

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2011

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN AR...SE MO...WRN TN
AND FAR WRN KY...

...MID-MS VALLEY/OZARKS...
A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID TO UPPER
MS-VALLEY ON SUNDAY. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SEWD
ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY...OZARKS AND SRN PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MODERATE DESTABILIZATION APPEARS PROBABLE AS SFC TEMPS WARM
SUNDAY AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RAPIDLY RETURNS NWD INTO THE OZARKS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING IN THE MORNING ACROSS SE MO/SRN
IL...WHILE CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD BE DELAYED IN MUCH OF AR BY
A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION EVIDENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THE FIRST
STORMS APPEAR MOST LIKELY TO INITIATE ACROSS SE IL AND SE MO WHERE
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE QUITE STRONG WITH STORM COVERAGE
INCREASING SWWD WITH TIME ALONG THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
OZARKS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 00Z MON JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE
MID-MS VALLEY SWWD INTO THE ARKLATEX SHOW SBCAPE VALUES IN THE 1000
TO 2000 J/KG RANGE WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 45 TO 55 KT. THIS
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS AND POSSIBLY
SUPERCELLS IF THE DOMINANT MODE REMAINS DISCRETE. IF SUPERCELLS
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING...A LARGE
HAIL THREAT SHOULD EXIST DUE TO THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND COLD
TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTH.
HOWEVER...THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LINEAR MCS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS
STORMS CONGEAL ALONG THE FRONT. IF THIS OCCURS...THEN WIND DAMAGE
COULD BE THE GREATER THREAT. DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED
SEVERE THREAT...HAVE ADDED A SMALL SLIGHT RISK AREA IN ERN AR...WRN
TN...SE MO AND FAR WRN KY WHERE THE RISK APPEARS THE LEAST
CONDITIONAL. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DEPEND
ON THE AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION.

..BROYLES.. 09/24/2011

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.