SWODY2
SPC AC 301722
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1222 PM CDT FRI SEP 30 2011
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BEGIN OCTOBER...WITH A
BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS AND AN UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS/SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THE BRUNT OF THE EASTERN
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL PIVOT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST STATES ON SATURDAY...WITH SOME TSTMS POSSIBLE
IN GENERAL ASSOCIATION WITH AN INLAND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW AND A
NARROW/MARGINALLY UNSTABLE MOIST SECTOR. WHILE A COOL/DRY AND STABLE
ENVIRONMENT WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL EAST OF THE ROCKIES...A FEW TSTMS
MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG A SOUTHWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTH
FL/ADJACENT WATERS AND/OR FAR SOUTH TX. IN THE WEST...WITH A
RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS PERSISTING ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE
GRADUALLY ABATING UPPER RIDGE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS A
BROAD PORTION OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES/EASTERN GREAT BASIN.
...LONG ISLAND VICINITY/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
AT THIS JUNCTURE...A FEW STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITHIN A HIGHLY SHEARED/AMPLE LOW LEVEL SRH
ENVIRONMENT THAT IS ANTICIPATED TO BE IN PLACE NEAR THE SURFACE
OCCLUSION/EAST OF THE INLAND-PIVOTING SURFACE LOW. BUT ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE EXPECTED PREVALENCE OF CLOUD COVER...MEAGER /OR AT LEAST
UNCERTAIN/ SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY WITHIN THE NARROW/MARGINALLY MOIST
WARM SECTOR CURRENTLY PRECLUDES SEVERE PROBABILITIES.
..GUYER.. 09/30/2011
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