SWODY2
SPC AC 211716
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1216 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2011
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY FILL ON
THURSDAY AS AN ASSOCIATED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SEWD ACROSS THE
MID-MO VALLEY AND SRN PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE
SWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...LOWER MS VALLEY AND TN VALLEY EXTENDING
NEWD INTO THE APPALACHIAN MTNS BY MIDDAY ON THURSDAY. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS SFC HEATING TAKES PLACE AND LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE INCREASES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG AND TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE FRONT SUGGEST A FEW POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY COULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND ATLANTIC SEABOARD. WHERE
INSTABILITY BECOMES LOCALLY MAXIMIZED...A FEW STRONG UPDRAFTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN
BELOW 30 KT ALONG MOST OF THE FRONT WITH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ALSO
WEAK SUGGESTING THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS SHOULD BE VERY
ISOLATED. DUE TO THIS REASONING...HAVE NOT ADDED A LOW-END SEVERE
PROBABILITY FOR THIS OUTLOOK.
..BROYLES.. 09/21/2011
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