SWODY3
SPC AC 020716
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0216 AM CDT FRI SEP 02 2011
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
...NERN STATES/OH VALLEY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY
SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES SEWD INTO THE CNTRL AND NRN
APPALACHIAN MTNS. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO INITIATE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY OF
ERN NY SWWD ACROSS WRN PA TO NEAR THE OH RIVER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ALONG THIS CORRIDOR AT 21Z SUNDAY SHOW SFC DEWPOINTS FROM 65 TO 70
F...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND ABOUT 30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS
ENVIRONMENT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SEVERE THREAT WITH THE BETTER
ORGANIZED LINE-SEGMENTS. HOWEVER...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND LAPSE
RATES SHOULD BE WEAK SUGGESTING ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
MARGINAL. THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST ACROSS NEW YORK
AND NEW ENGLAND SUGGESTING THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT MAY EXIST
THERE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
...CNTRL GULF COAST...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS FORECASTING TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13
TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AND MOVE INTO SRN LA SUNDAY. SOME
ROTATING STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE TROPICAL
STORM CENTER ACROSS THE MS DELTA REGION BUT THIS IS LARGELY
DEPENDENT UPON THE TIMING OF LANDFALL. STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ROTATION WITH THE MORE DISCRETE CELLS
EMBEDDED IN THE RAINBANDS. ALTHOUGH A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT COULD
EXIST SUNDAY ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST...THE THREAT IS CONDITIONAL
UPON MANY FACTORS. WILL NOT INCLUDE A LOW-END PROBABILITY AT THIS
TIME.
..BROYLES.. 09/02/2011
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