SWODY3
SPC AC 050709
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0209 AM CDT MON SEP 05 2011
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...NORTH CAROLINA/MID-ATLANTIC...
THE REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM LEE ARE FORECAST TO MOVE NWD
INTO THE OH VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. TO THE EAST OF THE ASSOCIATED
UPPER-LEVEL LOW...AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LOCATED FROM ERN
NC NWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC WHERE THE GFS THE DEVELOPS NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS WEDNESDAY
AT 21Z IN ERN NC AND ERN VA SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH 30 TO 40
KT OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL WIND
DAMAGE OR TORNADO THREAT AS CELLS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN DURING THE DAY. ALTHOUGH A SEVERE THREAT MAY
EXIST IN NC AND ERN VA WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT IS CONDITIONAL UPON
THE TRACK OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST. ATTM...AM FAVORING THE
GFS SOLUTION WHICH APPEARS TO BE CLOSER TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
..BROYLES.. 09/05/2011
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