SWODY3
SPC AC 250658
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0158 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2011
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE INTO LOWER MI BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALONG THE ERN-SRN PERIPHERY OF THIS CYCLONE
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A NARROW CORRIDOR OF LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE
THAT SHOULD FOCUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN ENHANCED BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AIDS
AN OTHERWISE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS DO
NOT PROJECT A PARTICULARLY BUOYANT ENVIRONMENT...PERIODIC BREAKS IN
CLOUD COVER/SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY ULTIMATELY LEAD TO POCKETS OF
INSTABILITY THAT COULD ENHANCE UPDRAFT INTENSITY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
UPPER OH VALLEY...SWWD INTO ERN TN. ANOTHER REGION WHERE ROBUST
UPDRAFTS COULD EVOLVE WILL BE ACROSS PARTS OF TX. THIS SWRN REGION
WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LITTLE IF
ANY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT ACROSS BOTH OF
THESE AREAS IS JUST TOO LOW TO WARRANT PROBS AT THIS TIME.
..DARROW.. 09/25/2011
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