SWOD48
SPC AC 040850
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0350 AM CDT SUN SEP 04 2011
VALID 071200Z - 121200Z
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE OH AND TN VALLEYS ON WEDNESDAY/DAY 4.
ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS FOR THURSDAY/DAY 5 AND
FRIDAY/DAY 6 DIFFER SOMEWHAT...BOTH MODELS EVENTUALLY RETROGRADE THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW WWD INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY WITH THE LOW REMAINING IN
PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL HELP LOCK THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ERN GULF COAST AND CAROLINAS WHERE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR FROM THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIMEFRAME.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE WEAK INSTABILITY...AN ENHANCED SEVERE THREAT IS
NOT EXPECTED DURING THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD.
..BROYLES.. 09/04/2011
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