SWOD48
SPC AC 070847
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0347 AM CDT WED SEP 07 2011
VALID 101200Z - 151200Z
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE MID-MS VALLEY ON SATURDAY/DAY 4. THE MODELS
WEAKEN THIS SYSTEM ON SUNDAY/DAY 5 BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE
SHARPLY WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK. ON MONDAY/DAY
6...THE ECMWF DEVELOPS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE WRN GULF OF
MEXICO BUT THE GFS DOES NOT...GRADUALLY MOVING AN EAST COAST TROUGH
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC. IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS CLOSER TO
VERIFYING...THEN A SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY ALONG THE CNTRL GULF COAST IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW. THIS SEVERE THREAT WOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD INTO THE ERN GULF
COAST STATES ON TUESDAY/DAY 7. IN CONTRAST...THE GFS MOVES AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SEWD OUT OF SRN CANADA WITH A MOIST AXIS LOCATED
IN THE UPPER MIDWEST AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WOULD
BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY/DAY 6 IN THE UPPER-MS VALLEY IF THE GFS
SOLUTION WERE CLOSE TO BEING CORRECT. AT THIS POINT...DIFFERING
MODEL SOLUTIONS INTRODUCE A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY INTO THE DAY
4 TO 8 PERIOD SO WILL NOT FORECAST A SEVERE THREAT AREA DUE TO LOW
PREDICTABILITY.
..BROYLES.. 09/07/2011
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