SWOD48
SPC AC 090854
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0354 AM CDT FRI SEP 09 2011
VALID 121200Z - 171200Z
...DISCUSSION...
CYCLONE NOW OVER OH VALLEY SHOULD EVOLVE TO POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
AS DESCRIBED IN DAY-2 AND DAY-3 OUTLOOKS...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE
ATLC COAST DAY-4/12TH-13TH. THIS WILL OCCUR AS HEIGHTS FALL OVER
GREAT LAKES IN RESPONSE TO SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING SEWD FROM
CENTRAL CANADA EMBEDDED WITHIN BELT OF NRN-STREAM CYCLONIC FLOW. SFC
CYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH ONE OF THOSE WAVES SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS
NRN ONT DAY-4...WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSES PORTIONS UPPER
MIDWEST AND UPPER GREAT LAKES. PROGS VARY GREATLY ON
STRENGTH/TIMING OF THOSE SFC FEATURES DAY-4 ONWARD...AND THEIR
IMPACT ON MASS FIELDS...AS THEY IMPINGE ON MOISTURE ADVECTED FROM
AREAS NOW BENEATH UPPER CYCLONE. ATTM SVR POTENTIAL ALONG/AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT APPEARS TOO TIED TO THAT TIMING FOR CATEGORICAL AREA AOA
30% RISK.
..EDWARDS.. 09/09/2011
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