SWOD48
SPC AC 140855
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 AM CDT WED SEP 14 2011
VALID 171200Z - 221200Z
...DISCUSSION...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COOL/STABLE AIRMASS WILL
INITIALLY BE PREVALENT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THIS WEEKEND...WHILE
MOISTURE GRADUALLY RETURNS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS AS LOW
AMPLITUDE/SUBTLY CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW PREVAILS. GIVEN THIS
SCENARIO...SEVERE TSTMS COULD OCCUR ON AN ISOLATED BASIS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS/LOWER MO VALLEY VICINITY ON
DAYS 4-5 SATURDAY/SUNDAY. BUT WITH THE STRONGEST FORCING/FLOW ALOFT
GENERALLY RELEGATED TO THE NORTHERN TIER...NO 30 PERCENT EQUIVALENT
SEVERE RISK AREAS ARE WARRANTED. WHILE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO
VARY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A SECONDARY/POTENTIALLY SOMEWHAT MORE
SUBSTANTIAL UPPER TROUGH COULD LEAD TO SOME SEVERE TSTMS ALONG/AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS/PERHAPS UPPER MIDWEST
INTO DAY 6/MONDAY.
..GUYER.. 09/14/2011
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