SWOD48
SPC AC 210825
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0325 AM CDT WED SEP 21 2011
VALID 241200Z - 291200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LARGE UPPER VORTEX OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST/OH VALLEY REGION EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...WHICH THEN MAKES ONLY VERY SLOW PROGRESS EWD WITH TIME. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST/REFORM
OVER TIME ACROSS THE E COAST STATES...AND WILL LIKELY BE A FOCUS FOR
PERSISTENT CONVECTION/RAINFALL.
THIS UPPER FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN THE
PRIMARY LARGE-SCALE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE U.S. THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE LOW EVENTUALLY MOVING OFF THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST
BY DAY 8. WITH INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBINATION ACROSS THE ERN STATES
LIKELY TO REMAIN INSUFFICIENT FOR WIDESPREAD/HIGHER-END SEVERE
THREAT...WILL CONTINUE TO REFRAIN FROM HIGHLIGHTING ANY THREAT AREAS
THIS FORECAST.
..GOSS.. 09/21/2011
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