SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020157
MNZ000-WIZ000-020330-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2092
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0857 PM CDT THU SEP 01 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN MN/NORTHWEST WI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 020157Z - 020330Z
SEVERE HAIL/PERHAPS DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY INCREASE THROUGH
MID/LATE EVENING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MN. A WATCH IS NOT
IMMINENT BECAUSE OF SHORT-TERM UNCERTAINTIES/POSSIBLE LIMITING
FACTORS...BUT DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
RECENT SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTION/POTENTIAL INCIPIENT TSTMS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MN ALONG A
NNE-SSW AXIS...NEAR AN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR...INHIBITION APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN MITIGATED VIA
LIFT AS PER THE 00Z OBSERVED RAOB FROM INTERNATIONAL FALLS...WITH A
CAP OTHERWISE REMAINING PREVALENT ACROSS THE PRE-COLD FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR AS PER THE MINNEAPOLIS 00Z OBSERVED SOUNDING. AS THE REGION
BEGINS TO GRADUALLY COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SPEED
MAX/STRENGTHENING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...SOMEWHAT INCREASING NEAR-FRONTAL FOCUSED
LIFT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING TSTM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE
02Z-04Z TIME FRAME. PROVIDED DEEP CONVECTION DOES BECOME
ESTABLISHED/REMAIN SUSTAINED...STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT/HIGHLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM MODES INCLUDING
THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SUPERCELLS. WITHIN THIS SCENARIO...THE
PRIMARY THREAT WOULD LIKELY BE SEVERE HAIL...WITH DAMAGING WINDS A
POSSIBILITY AS WELL. DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A WATCH.
..GUYER.. 09/02/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...
LAT...LON 45899526 48619321 48009006 47069122 45819218 45499347
45899526
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