SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021229
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-021330-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2094
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0729 AM CDT FRI SEP 02 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN MN...NERN IA AND SRN MN
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 821...
VALID 021229Z - 021330Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 821
CONTINUES.
PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITH LEADING STORM NOW
MOVING INTO WRN WI. THIS STORM MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR A
NARROW CORRIDOR OF WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL AS IT MOVES THROUGH SRN WI
DURING THE EARLY MORNING. THIS STORM WILL MOVE EAST OF WW 821 AFTER
13Z. WW 821 MAY NEED TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH FOR SRN WI BY 1230-1245Z.
NUMEROUS ELEVATED STORMS CONTINUE FROM NERN NEB...NRN IA AND SRN MN.
MUCH OF THE CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING WITHIN A ZONE OF POST FRONTAL
ASCENT AND SWD PROPAGATING GRAVITY WAVE. LEADING FORWARD PROPAGATING
CELL OVER EXTREME SE MN IS NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT AND MOVING EAST AT
45-50 KT. THE LLJ HAS VEERED TO WLY ACROSS SRN WI AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHIFTS EWD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND SWRN ONTARIO.
HOWEVER...THE LEADING STORM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE /1500-2000 J/KG MUCAPE/ ENVIRONMENT OVER SRN WI WITH 30-35
KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR AS IT ADVANCES EWD...AND GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE
RATES BETWEEN 900-700 MB...ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN CAPABLE OF ISOLATED
WIND DAMAGE NEXT FEW HOURS.
..DIAL.. 09/02/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...
LAT...LON 43829153 44389038 44448831 44168775 43388834 43319126
43829153
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