SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080206
MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-080400-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2150
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0906 PM CDT WED SEP 07 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN VA AND SRN MD INVOF THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 080206Z - 080400Z
VERY ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO THREAT MAY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS...BUT TORNADO WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.
RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW BANDS OF NWD MOVING STORMS TRAINING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN VA/MD JUST W OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. WITH A
VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SE OF A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THIS
REGION NEWD INTO SRN NJ CONTRIBUTING TO MODEST CAPE...OCCASIONALLY
STRONGER STORMS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE WITHIN THIS LARGER AREA OF
PRECIPITATION.
WITH SURFACE FLOW RELATIVELY WEAK -- BUT BACKED/ESELY...AMPLE SHEAR
IN THE LOWEST COUPLE OF KM CONTINUES TO SUPPORT TRANSIENT/BROAD
LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS. THIS TREND MAY
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS -- ALONG WITH A VERY LIMITED
POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF TORNADO GIVEN LOW LCLS. HOWEVER...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY NOT READILY
APPARENT...ANY THREAT SHOULD REMAIN TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT WW.
..GOSS.. 09/08/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...
LAT...LON 39017717 39337677 38927623 38177643 37297711 37737743
38467717 39017717
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