SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092222
FLZ000-092345-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2153
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0522 PM CDT FRI SEP 09 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 092222Z - 092345Z
A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS INTO EARLY EVENING.
HOWEVER...A WW IS NOT NEEDED OWING TO THE LACK OF CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION AND MINIMAL SVR THREAT.
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE ENEWD INTO PARTS OF THE WRN
FL PENINSULA ALONG A LOOSELY-DEFINED...ENEWD-MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ARCING FROM POLK TO DESOTO TO LEE COUNTY. THIS BOUNDARY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A DECAYING MCS THAT DEVELOPED WITHIN MOIST SWLY FLOW
OVER THE CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO EARLIER TODAY. AREA RADAR AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A REMNANT MCV OFF THE W COAST OF FL
AROUND 45 WSW OF SAINT PETERSBURG. MESOSCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE COULD AUGMENT LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WITHIN THE
RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET MAX OVER THE SERN STATES
TO SUSTAIN THIS ACTIVITY TOWARD THE EAST COAST. AHEAD OF THIS
ACTIVITY...SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE IMPACTING AREAS FROM
NEAR ORLANDO TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO MIAMI INTO EARLY EVENING OWING TO
CONVERGENCE ALONG AGGREGATE OUTFLOW/SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES AMIDST
MODERATE INSTABILITY. ALSO...A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS
PARTS OF THE CNTRL FL PENINSULA WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
STORMS...ESPECIALLY NEAR ITS INTERSECTION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH COLLAPSING
STORMS...AS PW VALUES FROM 2.0 TO 2.2 INCHES PER GPS DATA WILL
SUPPORT WATER-LOADING PROCESSES. HOWEVER...WITH 20 KT OR LESS OF
FLOW WITHIN THE LOWER/MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE PER MIAMI AND MELBOURNE VWP
DATA...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE LARGELY DISORGANIZED...AND THE
SVR POTENTIAL WILL BE MINIMAL. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE OF
CONCERN...PARTICULARLY OVER PARTS OF SOUTH FL WHERE STORM MOTIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLOWER OWING TO WEAKER MID-LEVEL FLOW PER MIAMI
VWP DATA. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING BY 01Z OWING TO
DIABATIC COOLING.
..COHEN.. 09/09/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...
LAT...LON 27528004 26337995 25608016 25498072 26058161 26558195
27508205 28378200 28698142 28668107 28338048 27528004
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment