SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102205
AZZ000-110030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2156
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0505 PM CDT SAT SEP 10 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...AZ
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 102205Z - 110030Z
A COUPLE OF SEVERE HAIL AND/OR SEVERE WIND EVENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS IN A GENERALLY FOCUSED REGION OF SERN AZ.
GIVEN LIMITED AREAL EXTENT OF THIS THREAT...AND SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING OVERALL DURATION/LONGEVITY...A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.
RAPID AND ROBUST TSTM DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED WITHIN THE LAST HOUR
OR SO ACROSS SRN PINAL AND WRN COCHISE COUNTIES OF ERN AZ AS STRONG
HEATING HAS ELIMINATED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. TERRAIN INFLUENCES AND
APPROACH OF A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMANATING FROM THE
LARGER CLOSED LOW OFF THE COAST OF SRN CA ARE ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO
AN ENHANCEMENT IN BOTH MESOSCALE AND SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT ACROSS
THE REGION. A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPE TO 2000 J PER KG/
SHOULD CONTINUE TO FUEL A FEW INTENSE STORM UPDRAFTS. DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR IS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FOR GREATER STORM ORGANIZATION GIVEN MID
LEVEL FLOW AOB 20KT. WHILE THIS SHOULD KEEP MOST ACTIVITY IN
MULTICELLULAR REALM...STRONGER SWLY FLOW EXISTS NEAR ANVIL LEVEL AND
IS EVIDENT IN MODEL DATA AND SUPPORTED BY RECENT VSBL SATL IMAGERY.
NOT ONLY WILL THIS ALLOW FOR AN EFFECTIVE EXHAUST MECHANISM FOR SOME
OF THE MORE INTENSE STORMS...BUT EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN THESE CASES
COULD BRIEFLY RESULT IN SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURE AND ENHANCED
WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL.
BOTH THE LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURST WIND THREAT WILL LIKELY BE
GREATEST OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BEFORE STORM INTERACTIONS AND
INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE ACT TO OVERTURN THE AIR MASS AND BEGIN TO
RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN INHIBITION.
..CARBIN.. 09/10/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TWC...PSR...
LAT...LON 32311226 32611221 32821217 33091198 33341140 33331108
33451066 33260982 33050931 32790907 32470906 32080908
31840907 31450908 31340918 31341073 31751230 32311226
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment