MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2164

ACUS11 KWNS 121959
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121959
UTZ000-AZZ000-NVZ000-122130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2164
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CDT MON SEP 12 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND CNTRL AZ

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 121959Z - 122130Z

A SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DEVELOPING ACROSS CNTRL AND NRN
AZ THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS BUT WW ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO THE MARGINAL NATURE
OF THE THREATS.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS CNTRL AND NRN AZ
ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. THE STRONGEST CELLS ARE
CURRENTLY IN NW AZ WHERE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS
SUGGESTS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS STRONGER THAN AREAS TO THE EAST.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN AZ SHOW MLCAPE VALUES
AROUND 1000 J/KG WITH 40 TO 45 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTING THE
STRONGER CELLS COULD HAVE A SEVERE THREAT. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
CURRENTLY ESTIMATED AT 8.5 TO 9.0 C/KM AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
STEEPEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS MAKING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS A
POSSIBILITY. HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH THE MORE INTENSE CORES.
INSTABILITY GRADUALLY INCREASES WITH WWD EXTENT SUGGESTING THE
GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST WEST OF THE FLAGSTAFF AREA.

..BROYLES.. 09/12/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GJT...FGZ...SLC...PSR...VEF...

LAT...LON 33631335 34171083 35711013 37111082 37021246 36331420
34881424 33631335

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.