SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141936
TNZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-142100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2179
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0236 PM CDT WED SEP 14 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL AR...SE MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 141936Z - 142100Z
A SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NCNTRL AR AND SE MO THIS
AFTERNOON AS STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE. HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ALTHOUGH THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED...WW ISSUANCE REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. THE AREA
WILL BE UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK AREA AT THE 20Z OUTLOOK.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT IN NRN AR
ON THE NWRN EDGE OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY. THE INSTABILITY
AXIS EXTENDS NWD THROUGH NRN MS AND NWWD INTO NRN AR WHERE
MESOANALYSIS INDICATES MLCAPE VALUES ARE IN THE 1500 TO 3000 J/KG
RANGE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE
OZARKS WILL PROVIDE THE LIFT NECESSARY TO HELP THE STORMS INTENSIFY
AS THEY INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN
ADDITION...THE EXIT REGION OF A 700 MB JET IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
ACROSS NRN AR AND SRN MO WHICH WILL REINFORCE THE MODERATE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ALREADY IN PLACE. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT
ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. A WIND
DAMAGE THREAT MAY ALSO EXIST ESPECIALLY IF SEVERAL SHORT
LINE-SEGMENTS CAN ORGANIZE.
..BROYLES.. 09/14/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...
LAT...LON 36868992 36889068 36799124 36649163 36349220 35809301
35419350 34939357 34669308 34599244 34519168 34559082
35278996 36468918 36868992
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