SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181945
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-182145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2188
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0245 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...PARTS OF SE KS/SW MO/WRN AR
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 181945Z - 182145Z
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT THAT
COULD REQUIRE A WATCH...POSSIBLY WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
WITHIN LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGHING LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL/
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AN AREA OF STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN EMBEDDED LOBE OF CYCLONIC VORTICITY IS NOW
SPREADING EAST OF THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION TOWARD THE
OZARKS. THIS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING STORM DEVELOPMENT BY THE
21-23Z TIME FRAME...ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO ADJACENT
SOUTHEAST KANSAS/SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...WHERE
DESTABILIZATION IS ONGOING...AND WARM ADVECTION IS ENHANCED ON THE
NOSE OF AN AXIS OF STRONGER SURFACE HEATING EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD
OUT OF CENTRAL TEXAS. VERTICAL SHEAR IS STILL FAIRLY MODEST...BUT
MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT SOME STRENGTHENING OF MID-LEVEL
FLOW COULD OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY BECOME SUPPORTIVE
OF ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL
OR TWO.
..KERR.. 09/18/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...ICT...OUN...
LAT...LON 35559633 36519598 37269555 37289425 36479369 35079405
34089488 34409608 35559633
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