MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2220

ACUS11 KWNS 302132
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302132
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-302300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2220
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0432 PM CDT FRI SEP 30 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL NC...ERN SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 302132Z - 302300Z

AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EXIST ACROSS ECNTRL NC AND ERN SC
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BE
THE PRIMARY THREAT BUT THE POTENTIAL SHOULD BE TOO MARGINAL FOR WW
ISSUANCE.

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW STRONGER CELLS IS ONGOING ON THE
WRN EDGE OF AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY WHERE MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE
VALUES FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG. ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS...0-3 KM
LAPSE RATES HAVE BECOME STEEP THIS AFTERNOON RANGING FROM 7.5 TO 8.5
C/KM ACROSS THE MCD AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
PROFILES MAY RESULT IN AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. IN SPITE OF THIS POTENTIAL...THE AIR IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS IS RELATIVELY DRY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE 50S F INLAND AND IN THE 60S F NEAR THE COAST. THIS WILL BE A
LIMITING FACTOR KEEPING ANY SEVERE THREAT MARGINAL.

..BROYLES.. 09/30/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...

LAT...LON 33098019 33427821 34447699 34837604 35637530 36357559
36627631 36777737 36617834 36097905 34927982 33668056
33098019

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