WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 852

WWUS20 KWNS 182037
SEL2
SPC WW 182037
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-190400-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 852
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
330 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN ARKANSAS
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 330 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF
MONETT MISSOURI TO 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DURANT OKLAHOMA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE/DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT OUR OR
SO IN CONFLUENT LOW LVL FLOW AHEAD OF COLD FRONT NOW CROSSING CNTRL
OK...IN RESPONSE TO BOTH SFC HEATING AND ASCENT WITH LEADING EDGE OF
APPROACHING VORT LOBE IN LARGER SCALE UPR TROUGH. OBSERVED AND FCST
WIND FIELDS SUGGEST LIKELIHOOD FOR A FEW SUSTAINED STORMS AND
POSSIBLY A COUPLE SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE BANDS/SMALL CLUSTERS THAT
LIKELY WILL EVOLVE LATER TODAY. WITH SBCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG AND
RICH LOW LVL MOISTURE...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SVR HAIL AND WIND.
A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN FAR ERN OK/WRN AR...WHERE NEAR-SFC
FLOW WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BACKED BY FRICTION. BUT ABSENCE OF
BETTER-DEFINED SFC WAVE...OPEN NATURE OF UPR TROUGH...AND MODEST LOW
LVL WINDS SUGGEST THAT ANY SUCH THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLD.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26025.

...CORFIDI

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