SWODY1
SPC AC 050458
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1158 PM CDT TUE OCT 04 2011
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORT WAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL DAMPEN AND EJECT
NEWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...WHILE A POWERFUL HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
TROUGH IMPACTS THE WEST...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN
OVERNIGHT. IN RESPONSE...SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS
THE CNTRL STATES...WITH MOIST/WARM ADVECTION SUPPORTING A NARROW
CORRIDOR OF WEAK INSTABILITY AHEAD OF A DRYLINE IN WRN TX...THE TX
PANHANDLE...AND WRN OK/KS. HOWEVER...GIVEN AN ANTECEDENT DRY AIR
MASS...DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE MODELS MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN
DEPICTING MORE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE RETURN. AS SUCH...MEAGER
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE THE ISSUANCE OF SEVERE
PROBABILITIES. ELSEWHERE IN THE WEST...COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
/-24 C AT 500 MB/ WILL LEAD TO STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES THAT WILL
BE CONDUCIVE TO CHARGE SEPARATION...SUPPORTING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST...GREAT BASIN...AND
NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER AND DECREASING
MOISTURE WILL LIMIT MORE ROBUST AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
..HURLBUT/LEITMAN/BROYLES.. 10/05/2011
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