SWODY1
SPC AC 081626
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 AM CDT SAT OCT 08 2011
VALID 081630Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
OVER S-CNTRL TX...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
S FL...
...SWRN AND S-CNTRL TX...
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE-DERIVED PW IMAGERY INDICATE THE
PRESENCE OF AN MT AIR MASS OVER THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
CNTRL TX WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S WITH PW
VALUES OF 1.50-1.75 INCHES. THIS MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING TO YIELD A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS BY AFTERNOON WITH
MLCAPE VALUES INCREASING TO 1500-2500 J/KG. CONVERGENCE ALONG
PRE-EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...UPSLOPE FLOW...AND ASCENDING
BRANCH OF AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATION ATTENDANT TO COUPLED UPPER-LEVEL
JET STRUCTURE ALL WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN TSTMS TODAY OVER
THE EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION. THOUGH DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WILL
REMAIN MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORM MODES...VERTICALLY
VEERING WIND PROFILES COUPLED WITH THE HIGH PW ENVIRONMENT MAY
FOSTER EVOLUTION OF ONE OR MORE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS WITH AN ATTENDANT
RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL.
ADDITIONAL STORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE TRANS-PECOS REGION IN RESPONSE TO APPROACH OF
UPSTREAM VORTICITY MAXIMUM ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF LARGE-SCALE
TROUGH.
...S FL...
A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OF LOW-LEVEL GRADIENT FLOW IS FORECAST TODAY
INTO TONIGHT ALONG SRN FRINGE OF MID ATLANTIC ANTICYCLONE IN
RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS WILL RESULT IN ENLARGING LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WITHIN A
MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG.
AS SUCH...SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED STORM
MODES...INCLUDING SHALLOW SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES WITH THE
PRIMARY HAZARD BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
...CNTRL OK INTO NRN TX...
RECENT TRENDS IN REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TSTM INTENSITY ALONG LEADING EDGE OF RESIDUAL COLD POOL OVER SWRN
OK. WHILE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE...GUSTY...SELY
SURFACE WINDS WILL ENHANCE INFLOW OF A RELATIVELY MOIST AND MODESTLY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS INTO ONGOING ACTIVITY. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY STRONG
LOW- AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE...A LOW PROBABILITY RISK FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF SPIN-UP ALONG CONVECTIVE GUST
FRONT WILL BE POSSIBLE.
..MEAD/ROGERS.. 10/08/2011
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