DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 141905
SWODY1
SPC AC 141904

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0204 PM CDT FRI OCT 14 2011

VALID 142000Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NJ INTO SERN NY AND INTO
SRN NEW ENGLAND...

NO CHANGES REQUIRED TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK.

WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT RISK DRIVEN BY WIND AS STORMS TRAVEL ACROSS NJ
NY AND INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. INSTABILITY REMAINS MARGINAL BUT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR SOME SMALL SCALE ORGANIZATION WITH A
POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...THE
THREAT WILL LIKELY END BY EARLY EVENING.

..JEWELL.. 10/14/2011

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT FRI OCT 14 2011/

...NORTHEAST STATES...
A STRONG AND NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST UNITED STATES TODAY. DEEP SOUTHERLY TROPOSPHERIC FLOW
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL AFFECT MUCH OF NY/NEW ENGLAND
TODAY...HELPING TO TRANSPORT A RELATIVELY MOIST AIR MASS NORTHWARD.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD UP THE
HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER OVER THIS REGION...BUT
OCCASIONAL BREAKS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON PROVIDING MARGINAL
DIURNAL HEATING. NEVERTHELESS...INSTABILITY TODAY WILL BE QUITE
WEAK.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO FORM ALONG THE
PRIMARY BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER EASTERN PA. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 40-50 KNOT SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM
850MB UPWARD...ALONG WITH SOME WEAK CURVATURE IN THE LOWEST 2KM.
THIS SUGGESTS SOME CONCERN FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES IN THE MORE
PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS. AN ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...BUT IT APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY THREAT TODAY WOULD BE FROM
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ALONG BOWING LINE SEGMENTS. GIVEN INCREASING
RADAR TRENDS AND FAVORABLE TIMING OF UPPER SYSTEM...HAVE OPTED TO
UPGRADE A SMALL AREA TO SLIGHT RISK. THE THREAT SHOULD END LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING SUBSIDES AND STORMS MOVE INTO A
SLIGHTLY DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.

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