SWODY1
SPC AC 261622
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1122 AM CDT WED OCT 26 2011
VALID 261630Z - 271200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL PROGRESS ESEWD ACROSS THE
CONUS...WHILE A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SEWD ACROSS THE
OH VALLEY AND SRN PLAINS. THE PRIMARY NRN STREAM WAVE WILL MOVE
FROM THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES...AND A
SEPARATE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE SRN GREAT BASIN TO THE SRN
ROCKIES AND SRN HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY THURSDAY. WEAK INSTABILITY IS
PRESENT IN A NARROW BAND ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WITH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY EXTENDING IMMEDIATELY N OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE FRONT...WITH THE MAIN SWATH OF
CONVECTION EXPECTED FROM NRN AR/SE MO NEWD INTO THE OH
VALLEY...WHERE LOW-MIDLEVEL ASCENT IS FOCUSED ALONG THE PRIMARY
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS.
DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
STORMS FROM AR NEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL
FLOW/SHEAR WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...AND AFTERNOON MLCAPE IS
UNLIKELY TO EXCEED 500-1000 J/KG. WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL AREA OF LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR DAMAGING WINDS FOR AR/SE MO...BUT THE OVERALL
SEVERE STORM RISK WILL BE LIMITED BY THE POOR LAPSE
RATES/INSTABILITY.
OTHERWISE...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING FROM NE AZ INTO NM ALONG THE PATH OF THE GREAT BASIN
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHERE ASCENT AND WEAK INSTABILITY COINCIDE.
OVERNIGHT...THERE WILL BE A RISK OF ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION
WITH DIFFERENTIAL CVA ALOFT AND WAA/FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 800-600 MB
LAYER.
..THOMPSON/LEITMAN.. 10/26/2011
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