SWODY1
SPC AC 290524
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1224 AM CDT SAT OCT 29 2011
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE THAT A SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH...NOW EVOLVING
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS...WILL TURN EASTWARD
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND MIDDLE/NORTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS
DURING THIS PERIOD...AS ANOTHER STRONG IMPULSE DIGS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. FORCING WITH THE LEAD
SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO SUPPORT STRONG CYCLOGENESIS...WITH RAPID
DEEPENING OF THE LOW EXPECTED ALONG A SURFACE FRONT OFF MID ATLANTIC
COASTAL AREAS BY MIDDAY TODAY...BEFORE IT MIGRATES NORTHEASTWARD AND
DEEPENS CONSIDERABLY FURTHER...TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT.
WITH PRE-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO VEER TO A WESTERLY
COMPONENT ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY IN THE DAY...AND THE
WARM SECTOR OF THE CYCLONE TO THE NORTH OTHERWISE LIKELY TO REMAIN
OFFSHORE...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW.
HOWEVER...STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO
CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BASED
WITHIN AN ELEVATED ZONE OF STEEPENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT...
INLAND...TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE DEEPENING LOW.
OTHERWISE...LOW THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES COULD LINGER THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS NEAR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COASTAL AREAS...AND PERHAPS
NEAR THE GREAT LAKES...BUT THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS
NEGLIGIBLE.
..KERR/COHEN.. 10/29/2011
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