SWODY1
SPC AC 301239
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0739 AM CDT SUN OCT 30 2011
VALID 301300Z - 311200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...FL...
THE EWD PROGRESSION OF AN EXPANSIVE LOW-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL VEERING OF THE SURFACE
WIND FIELD...AND SUBSEQUENT WEAKENING OF STALLED FRONT OVER THE FL
STRAITS. INCREASING ELY/SELY LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES WILL ALLOW THE
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER OBSERVED BY 12Z KEY/MFL SOUNDINGS TO GRADUALLY
DEVELOP NWD DURING THE D1 PERIOD. LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
WILL REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE...BUT DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG PRE-EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD SUPPORT AN
INCREASE IN STORMS TODAY ACROSS THE SRN PENINSULA. LAPSE RATES AND
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK AND NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT --ESPECIALLY ACROSS E-CNTRL AND
SERN PARTS OF THE PENINSULA-- OWING TO A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WAA
REGIME.
...IL...
MIDLEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO MID MO
VALLEY WILL TRANSLATE ESEWD TODAY IN TANDEM WITH SURFACE COLD FRONT.
12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE-DERIVED PW IMAGERY INDICATE
THAT AMBIENT AIR MASS REMAINS QUITE DRY. HOWEVER...A FOCUSED SWATH
OF FORCING FOR ASCENT AND RESULTANT STEEPENING OF MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES MAY YIELD POCKETS OF WEAK INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON. WHILE
MOST CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYNOPTIC SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
SHALLOW...A FEW CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS MAY DEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY TO
SUPPORT ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES. EXPECTED COVERAGE AND DURATION
APPEAR TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A GENERAL TSTM AREA.
..MEAD/HURLBUT.. 10/30/2011
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