SWODY1
SPC AC 281236
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0736 AM CDT FRI OCT 28 2011
VALID 281300Z - 291200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...ERN U.S...
A BROAD...CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME IN PLACE E OF THE ROCKIES WILL
SHARPEN THIS PERIOD AS VORTICITY MAXIMA OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND
SRN HIGH PLAINS PHASE AND CONTRIBUTE TO A CORRIDOR OF 500 MB HEIGHT
FALLS APPROACHING 50-100 M PER 12-HR E OF THE MS VALLEY BY 29/12Z.
IN THE LOW LEVELS...A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE OVER SERN LA WILL DEVELOP
ENEWD TOWARD THE SERN ATLANTIC COAST IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
DE-AMPLIFYING MIDLEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE EWD THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO
TODAY AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL PARTS OF FL LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
DIURNALLY ENHANCED TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL LARGELY BE CONFINED TO
ALONG AND S OF A STALLED FRONT OVER THE CNTRL FL PENINSULA TODAY.
HERE...A VERY MOIST AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOW-MID 70S AND PW VALUES AROUND TWO INCHES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1500-2000 J/KG. WHILE FORECAST
HODOGRAPHS EXHIBIT VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT...THE LOW-LEVEL WIND
FIELD AND MAGNITUDE OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN TOO WEAK TO
SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM MODES.
ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED...ELEVATED TSTMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING FROM PORTIONS OF THE SRN
APPALACHIANS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
THIS ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR ATOP A STABLE...POST-FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LAYER...ROOTED WITHIN A MOIST AND WEAKLY-BUOYANT ENVIRONMENT BASED
AROUND 850 MB.
..MEAD/HURLBUT.. 10/28/2011
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment