DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 101942
SWODY1
SPC AC 101941

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0241 PM CDT MON OCT 10 2011

VALID 102000Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND ADJACENT GEORGIA COASTAL
AREAS...

...20Z OUTLOOK UPDATE...SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS...
AS THE LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO
MIGRATE NORTH NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AWAY FROM THE
WEAKENING SURFACE LOW CENTER OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA...LOW TORNADIC
POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FURTHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS HAVE ALREADY
DECREASED CONSIDERABLY IN SIZE...WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BECOME
MOIST AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE NEAR THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN GEORGIA. SIMILAR TRENDS IN LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING NORTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL GEORGIA....WHERE LINGERING STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS
WILL PROBABLY ALSO CONTINUE TO PRECLUDE A SUBSTANTIVE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT.

MODELS DO SUGGEST THAT MODESTLY STRONG /30-40+ KT/ EAST
SOUTHEASTERLY 850 MB FLOW MAY PERSIST ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL
AREAS INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SIZABLE CLOCKWISE CURVED
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...AND PERHAPS ENOUGH OF A TORNADO THREAT TO
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SLIGHT RISK SEVERE PROBABILITIES...MAINLY WHERE
BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MOST FAVORABLE...NEAR
IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS.

..KERR.. 10/10/2011

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT MON OCT 10 2011/

...SERN ATLANTIC COAST...

HYBRID-TYPE SURFACE LOW S OF VLD WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS
WWD TODAY BEFORE TURNING SWWD AND MOVING TO OFF THE FL PNHDL COAST
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...SECONDARY LOW FORMATION IS FORECAST OFF THE
NERN FL COAST TONIGHT WITH THIS FEATURE DEVELOPING NNEWD ALONG
COASTAL FRONT SITUATED ALONG THE SC SHELF WATERS.

WWD MOTION OF PRIMARY LOW WILL MAINTAIN A WEDGE OF HIGHER THETA-E
AIR INTO INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SRN GA/NRN FL WHERE MLCAPE MAY
APPROACH 500-1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND
ISALLOBARIC FORCING WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY DISPLACED TO THE W OF
INSTABILITY AXIS...SUGGESTING A GRADUAL DECREASE IN TORNADO
POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON.

FARTHER N ALONG THE SC COAST...NELY LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES WILL
LIKELY BE MAINTAINED WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINING
QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE SHELF WATERS THROUGH THE PEAK OF THE
DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE. THIS BOUNDARY MAY ATTEMPT TO PIVOT SLIGHTLY
INLAND TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF SECONDARY SURFACE LOW...SUGGESTING AT
LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY RISK FOR A BRIEF TORNADO/WATERSPOUT.

FOR ADDITIONAL NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE...SEE MCD 2246.

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