SWODY1
SPC AC 230505
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1205 AM CDT SUN OCT 23 2011
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...ARKLATEX...
ONGOING MCS OVER SERN OK/WRN AR/NERN TX WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
IN INTENSITY TOWARD SUNRISE AND IT/S NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR HOW MUCH
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF EARLY MORNING
STORMS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE EXPECTED HEIGHT RISES AND LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. AIRMASS OVER ERN AR/LA IS NOT
PARTICULARLY MOIST/UNSTABLE THUS CONVECTION WILL INCREASINGLY
STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN ROBUST UPDRAFTS. FOR THIS REASON HAVE OPTED
NOT TO INTRODUCE LOW SEVERE PROBS.
...MIDWEST...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER SPEED MAX WILL TRANSLATE SEWD FROM MT INTO IA LATE
IN THE PERIOD WITH DOWNSTREAM HIGH LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EXPECTED TO
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE MIDWEST IN CONJUNCTION WITH WEAK SFC FRONT.
GIVEN THE DEEP WLY FLOW REGIME IT APPEARS LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN
EASILY ACROSS IA/NRN IL AS BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS. WITH SFC-3KM
VALUES EXCEEDING 9 C/KM IT APPEARS SFC-BASED PARCELS SHOULD BECOME
UNINHIBITED ENABLING PARCELS TO FREELY CONVECT ALONG ADVANCING WIND
SHIFT. FOR THIS REASON IT WOULD SEEM THAT WEAK CONVERGENCE MAY
PROVE ADEQUATE FOR ISOLATED-SCT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT PRIMARILY
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.
..DARROW/HURLBUT.. 10/23/2011
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