SWODY1
SPC AC 101623
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1123 AM CDT MON OCT 10 2011
VALID 101630Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SERN
ATLANTIC COAST...
...SERN ATLANTIC COAST...
HYBRID-TYPE SURFACE LOW S OF VLD WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS
WWD TODAY BEFORE TURNING SWWD AND MOVING TO OFF THE FL PNHDL COAST
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...SECONDARY LOW FORMATION IS FORECAST OFF THE
NERN FL COAST TONIGHT WITH THIS FEATURE DEVELOPING NNEWD ALONG
COASTAL FRONT SITUATED ALONG THE SC SHELF WATERS.
WWD MOTION OF PRIMARY LOW WILL MAINTAIN A WEDGE OF HIGHER THETA-E
AIR INTO INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SRN GA/NRN FL WHERE MLCAPE MAY
APPROACH 500-1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND
ISALLOBARIC FORCING WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY DISPLACED TO THE W OF
INSTABILITY AXIS...SUGGESTING A GRADUAL DECREASE IN TORNADO
POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON.
FARTHER N ALONG THE SC COAST...NELY LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES WILL
LIKELY BE MAINTAINED WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINING
QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE SHELF WATERS THROUGH THE PEAK OF THE
DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE. THIS BOUNDARY MAY ATTEMPT TO PIVOT SLIGHTLY
INLAND TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF SECONDARY SURFACE LOW...SUGGESTING AT
LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY RISK FOR A BRIEF TORNADO/WATERSPOUT.
FOR ADDITIONAL NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE...SEE MCD 2246.
..MEAD/ROGERS.. 10/10/2011
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